Figures from Oslo-based analysis company Point Carbon show some 3.7 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent were traded in mandatory emission reduction systems around the world in the first half of 2010. This compares with 4.1 billion tonnes traded in the first six months of 2009, representing a drop of 10%.

Bloomberg New Energy Finance posted similar volume findings, reporting that trading in the first six months of 2010 was down 8% from the first half of 2009, to 3.6 billion tonnes. 

But while the two groups agreed on the downward volume trend, opinions diverged when it came to the value of the market.

Point Carbon said the market’s value rose nearly 5% to €46 billion ($59 billion), compared with the same period in 2009, while Bloomberg’s data valued the market at $63 billion, down 6% from $67 billion in H1 09.

Commenting on the Point Carbon data, Endre Tvinnereim, senior analyst at the Oslo-based analysis company, said that “political uncertainty prevails across markets, although the momentum that was lost in Copenhagen is slowly returning. The players in the carbon market are still waiting for one or more critical policy decisions that could bring the carbon market to the next stage.”

The US Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) market has been the clearest victim of this uncertainty, with volumes down two-thirds to 110 million tons (Mt) from 321 Mt. Its value, at $237 million, was down 77% year on year, according to Point Carbon.

An oversupply of allowances in that market - which caps emissions from power plants in 10 north-eastern US states - has pushed prices down to the floor price, and the continuing lack of progress to wards a federal US cap-and-trade system has dampened interest in holding RGGI allowances for possible use in that programme.

Meanwhile, volumes in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme fell 7% year-on-year, to 2.9 billion tonnes. However, the market’s value, at €40 billion ($50 billion), was up 2%, Point Carbon said.

Charlotte Dudley and Mark Nicholls