Stern spells out long-term climate proposal
London, 1 May: Climate change economist Nicholas Stern yesterday called on developed countries to accept binding greenhouse gas emission reduction targets of 80-90% below 1990 levels by 2050, with developing countries adopting targets by 2020.

Speaking at the launch of his new report, Key elements of a global deal on climate change, he said that “we’re in a hurry to get a global deal”. With a successor to the Kyoto Protocol due to be agreed at international talks in Copenhagen in December 2009, the chairman of the UK’s committee on climate change, Adair Turner, described the report as “a crucial input into the discussions that are now taking place”.

The need for emission reduction targets is driven by two “killer facts”, said Turner. Firstly, combining the need to halve global emissions by 2050 with the projected increase in the world’s population from 6 to 9 billion means that emissions must fall from an average of 7 tonnes per capita (t/capita) today to around 2 t/capita in 2050. Most developed countries emit 10-12 t/capita, but developing countries are not immune, with China and India already emitting 5 t/capita and nearly 2 t/capita, respectively. Secondly, the historic improvement in carbon efficiency per unit of GDP is 1% per year; this needs to increase to 6-7% per year if we are to meet climate change goals, he said.

Stern insisted yesterday that “this is not a low-growth story”. The report says that the world should “harness the power of markets”, but that it is not yet time for a global emission cap-and-trade system. Developed countries must take the lead, demonstrating low-carbon growth and transferring technologies to developing countries via the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism. This should be transformed as far as possible from the current time-consuming project-based system with its high transaction costs into a wholesale system with standardised criteria, to allow for much greater financial flows into developing countries, he added.

Developing countries, which will make up nearly 90% of the world’s population in 2050, must plan for emission reductions and be ready to accept binding targets by 2020, says the report. Those with strong emissions growth, such as China and India, should be willing to accept sectoral, or even national, targets before that.

The report also states that deforestation should be fully integrated into the carbon market in the medium- to long-term, to incentivise private sector involvement. Before that, there must be international support for institutions and governance structures to address root causes of deforestation, as well as $15 billion per year funding, the majority of which is likely to come from governments initially.

Climate change adaptation should be integrated into overall development spending and, according to the report, “well-informed private enterprise and investment has the potential to drive the bulk of adaptation in many countries”. Public funds should be used to catalyse private involvement, and to invest where private money is insufficient.