Climate issue now 'conventional' in US, S&P says

London, 17 May: Climate change has moved from "controversial" to "conventional" in the US, according to Standard & Poor's, although costs are difficult to estimate since control technologies are uncertain.

"2006 will be seen as the year when climate change moved from the controversial to the conventional in the public mind," said Swami Venkataraman, S&P director in corporate and government ratings. "Industry seems to accept that controls are now very likely," he added, during a 14 May conference call on the financial impact of global warming organised by the credit ratings agency.

US legislation requiring large reductions in greenhouse gas emissions early, "before adequate technology can develop," would impose a big financial burden, Venkataraman said, while reductions over a longer period "will provide a significant cushion for carbon emitting companies to adjust".

Venkataraman is pessimistic about the near-term prospects for carbon capture and sequestration. "Outside of enhanced oil recovery operations, which are profitable at current oil prices, carbon storage technology in other destinations, such as aquifers, remains commercially unproven," he said. "Carbon capture is also unproven in power plants and is very expensive with current technology."

An 11 May S&P report estimated the capital cost of carbon dioxide capture on a standard pulverised coal plant at $940/kW, compared with total plant cost of $2,438/kW. Further, it would take 25% of the power station's output to run the technology. An "integrated gasification combined cycle" (IGCC) plant burning eastern US coal would cost $2,795/kW, with a $450/kW capture cost and a 15% power loss.

There are also legal risks, he added. If utilities are responsible for carbon dioxide stored underground for hundreds of years, leakage could give rise to liabilities.

Energy efficiency could make a large contribution to reducing GHGs, but most rate structures reward utilities for selling power and deter them from promoting conservation. Regulators should implement "decoupling tariffs" that separate utility profits from the amount of power sold, he said.