31 December 2014

Have we turned a corner on climate change?

Will 2014 be remembered as the year when the world turned a corner on climate change?

As we put together Environmental Finance's online and print coverage, one of our main considerations is that it serves as a guide to the financial community as to how to boost or safeguard returns amid the transition to a low-carbon economy.

In this column a year ago, I wrote that 2014 would be a make-or-break year. I think it has fallen into the 'make' category, following a great deal of encouraging news flow.

A highlight has been the green bond market, which has tripled in size, helped by some big corporates weighing in. The market has been shored up by the Green Bond Principles, which represent a considered effort from players across the sector to add transparency to the market.

And a number of green bond indexes have now sprung up, speeding the market on its path to maturity.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon's climate summit in New York saw some important announcements, such as the Declaration on Forests and The Portfolio Decarbonisation Coalition.

The summit was notable for the buy-in it received from big business, and will hopefully shake some of the inertia out of the UN climate negotiations. There already seems to be movement from the world's economic powerhouses, with the EU having agreed 2030 targets, and China and the US having put their heads together to make meaningful statements on emissions cuts.

The commitments received by the nascent Green Climate Fund are a little disappointing, at just under $10 billion at the time of going to press in early December, but are a step in the right direction.

There is also some optimism around the carbon markets for the first time in years, as the EU shows willing to support its cap-and-trade scheme, and new markets gain momentum across the world.

The stranded fossil fuel assets debate has gained in intensity, with numerous high-profile divestment decisions including from the Rockefeller Brothers and the Second National Swedish Pension Scheme (AP2).

And tectonic plates appear to be shifting in the European utility sector, with E.On announcing radical plans to spin off its fossil fuel assets.

The Lima climate talks have delivered little, while leaving the door open to an agreement next year. However, the big prize is Paris in 2015, when national targets need to be agreed.

The worrying thing is that we have had similarly high hopes before – remember the not-so-wonderful Copenhagen?

Momentum has gathered in recent months. Investors now need to see it continue.